Florida’s Abortion Ruling Backfires

The Sunshine State is winnable for Democrats

Photo Credit: Getty: Ryan McVay

Those of you who read this newsletter know I find it important to spotlight the crucial aspects of stories that often slip through the cracks of corporate media coverage. 

Today, I want to highlight a crucial development in Florida that could shake up the 2024 election – and a decision that makes a win for Democrats in November even more urgent.

You’ve probably seen the headlines that the Florida Supreme Court upheld the state’s six-week abortion ban. But here’s the twist: The court also ruled that abortion can be on the ballot in November 2024. 

While in the short-term, the decision was a win for anti-choice advocates, this decision shows signs that it will backfire on Donald and the Republicans. The Biden campaign is now working on strategies to flip Florida, and with the potential for the abortion issue to rally voters – which we’ve seen in red states like Kansas, Kentucky, and Ohio – we might just witness a seismic shift in the Sunshine State as well.

And here’s the kicker: imagine a Democratic victory in the state that Donald now lives in (he literally fled New York so he wouldn’t have to face an electoral loss at home).

A win in Florida is not just a dream — it’s entirely possible. 

Ruling one: the very bad 

The Florida Supreme Court has decided to uphold an existing 15-week abortion ban in the state. This decision has also activated a separate law, previously approved by Florida lawmakers, which bans abortions after just six weeks of pregnancy. 

This stricter six-week abortion ban is set to become law and will be enforced starting 30 days from the court’s decision.

Ruling two: A glimmer of hope

In a separate, and unexpected decision that was released concurrently, the Court ruled that in November, Florida voters can choose whether or not to expand abortion access in the state. 

Specifically, the Court ruled 4 to 3 that a proposed constitutional amendment that would guarantee the right to abortion, could be on the November ballot.

Florida Republican leadership who pressed the courts to rule their way on abortion are apparently not very happy. “We are very disappointed that a deceptively worded pro-abortion amendment is allowed to appear on Florida's ballot in November,” the Florida GOP chairman wrote. Be careful what you wish for…

Abortion is a game changer

As noted by Axios, “the anti-abortion movement’s greatest achievement — the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade — has morphed into one of the biggest election liabilities Republicans have encountered in decades.”

It’s important to acknowledge the immediate impact of the six-week ban. Women in Florida will face significant restrictions on their reproductive freedoms until at least November — or much longer if the ballot initiative fails. This could potentially lead to a situation similar to what’s happening in Texas, where tens of thousands of women are unable to access necessary health care services. In fact, there have been 26,313 rape-related pregnancies in Texas in the 16 months since the state legislature banned abortion.

These challenges, however,  can serve as our rallying cry. The infringement on women’s rights will galvanize us, men who realize their rights are being infringed upon, too, and all supporters of reproductive freedom. We will make our voices heard at the ballot box – just as we have in the reddest of red states.

The Florida Supreme Court’s decision to put abortion on the ballot could lead to a monumental shift in the upcoming election that may well resonate for decades. 

Democratic victories across the country 

In Kansas, voters decisively rejected an effort to remove the right to abortion from the State Constitution. This was a significant win for the abortion rights movement in a state that consistently elects Republicans. The defeat of the ballot referendum was the most tangible demonstration yet of a political backlash against the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

In Ohio, voters passed a ballot measure that explicitly protected reproductive rights, ensuring abortion’s legality in the state. This was a major victory for pro-choice campaigners in the conservative-leaning state.

In Virginia, Democrats secured full control of the state legislature, winning a majority in the House of Delegates. This victory deprived the Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, of the opportunity to enact a 15-week abortion ban. The Democrats’ success was largely attributed to their focus on protecting abortion access, which became a galvanizing issue in Virginia. 

In Alabama, a significant political shift occurred when Democratic candidate Marilyn Lands won a special election for a state House seat. Lands, a licensed mental health counselor, centered her campaign on reproductive rights, specifically focusing on in vitro fertilization (IVF) and abortion rights. The Biden campaign said Alabama was a major warning sign for Donald that voters will not stand for his attacks on reproductive health care.

Donald’s Big Dilemma

The prospect of abortion appearing on the ballot in any swing state should give Donald nightmares. To rile up his evangelical base, he’ll be forced to tout his support for abortion restrictions and his role in appointing three conservative Supreme Court justices. That spells potential doom for huge voting blocs — especially suburban white women.

As a brand new KFF Health Tracking Poll indicates, voters who say abortion is the “most important issue” to their 2024 vote are disproportionately Black, Democratic, women, and between the ages of 18 and 29. 

Do these voting blocs sound familiar? They belong to the same demographics that have been less than enthusiastic about President Biden. Republicans just handed Democrats the best roadmap to secure these voters and change the tide.

Donald’s campaign will now be forced to spend money it otherwise wouldn’t have had to in one of the most expensive advertising markets in the country. This would be a hardship under normal circumstances, but because the RNC has been severely depleted thanks to their decision to cover Donald’s mounting legal bills, they are now running on fumes.

Then there are the personal implications. As you know, because of Donald’s incredibly fragile ego, he cannot imagine losing in his home state of Florida. That blind spot will make it harder for him to accept the fact that he is going to have to campaign in a state he thinks is a safe bet.

The Biden campaign says it will target flipping Florida

Right now, polls separate Donald and President Biden by about 6%. With undecided voters making up about 5% of those polled, you can see why the numbers have gotten Democrats’ attention. The two candidates remain tied among independent voters in the state.

Now, President Biden’s campaign says he is zeroing in on Florida. In 2020, Donald won the state by only 3%. In 2016 his margin of victory was half that.

“Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,” campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a memo.

Not only has the campaign hired three operatives to run the campaign in Florida, but President Biden has already started to air strong campaign ads in the state.

With abortion on the ballot, Democrats have a clear shot. Let’s make it happen.