Nerd Avengers Make Their Midterm Predictions

In conversation with the Nerd Avengers

Mary L Trump, Dean Obeidallah, Tara Setmayer, and 4 others

Nov 04, 2026

[Transcript edited for clarity, flow and length]

Mary Trump: What’s your prediction for the results for the House and the Senate, assuming, of course, that everybody who can vote is allowed to vote?

Norm Ornstein: If everybody is allowed to vote, I think we may not see what Republicans gained in 2010, when they picked up over 60 seats in the House and won majorities that had not been seen in many, many decades. But I could easily see 35 to 40 seats in the House and six to eight seats in the Senate. I could also see them picking up astonishing governorships, and remember, that is huge for 2028. I can also see enough state legislative seats flipping that Democratic governors facing Republican legislatures will no longer have to worry about veto proof majorities.

Brian Karem: I think fifty fifty is the worst you would see, and I believe that is a worst case scenario that will not occur. I think they will get a majority. If you had asked me six weeks ago, Mary, I would have said there is no way the Democrats could get the majority. But with what Donald has done and what the Republicans have done, at this point in time, you are betting on the Democrats, because they are the only ones who still seem to care about the country.

Tara Setmayer: I think we are going to see probably over 230 seats for the Democrats in the House. I think the Democrats win the House comfortably. As far as the Senate is concerned, I have vacillated back and forth every day on whether they will win, but I think it is not only that the Democrats are going to win the Senate, but by how much. The nightmare scenario is 51 to 49, because we all know what Fetterman is going to do. I think Fetterman will switch parties, and then you are back to fifty fifty, and JD Vance can break the tie. But I really want to see what happens in the South, because there were a lot of quiet, really good Southern Democratic candidates who are actually competitive, and no one was paying attention to them because the mood is so bad and everything is so awful for Trump and Republicans. Keep your eye on that, because it bodes well for the future for Democrats in 2028 and beyond.

Mary Trump: I am incredibly optimistic about the House. I think Democrats will come away with around 240 seats. I do not think the Senate is going to be as big a blowout, but I am pretty confident Democrats are going to end up with 53 Senate seats. What is one race you are particularly keeping an eye on?

Brian Karem: I have two. In Missouri’s Second District, Fred Wellman is running against Ann Wagner. Trump won that district by eight percentage points in 2024, and Wagner won it by double digits, I think 12, when she ran two years ago. Wellman is now ahead, with no DNC support, no DCCC support, and nothing from the national party. I think he is up by about eight points in the latest poll. I am looking at that race because of what he is doing. Wagner does not hold town hall meetings, but Wellman does, and he is meeting with people in his district. I went down there, and there is a lot of energy. The guy walks into a room like a rock star. Republican voters have told me they want their representative to be seen in public and to be part of the community, and he has done that. That is huge there.

Then there is the North Carolina Ninth District, with Richard O’Jetta running neck and neck in a race that was won by double digits the last time, by a Republican. Trump won that district by roughly 12 to 14 points when he ran in 2024. Those two are bellwethers for me, because if they win, they are going to show you exactly what this country wants. These are two candidates who have done it all by themselves and with very little support. That tells you the Democratic Party has to get its house in order.

Norm Ornstein: One I want to keep a close eye on is Annie Andrews against Darlene Nordone in South Carolina, one of those states we never expected to be in play. Annie Andrews would be a spectacular senator, a pediatrician who really got her act together. I am also looking a little more closely at Sherrod Brown’s race against John Husted in Ohio. It is very clear that Amy Acton has pulled way ahead of the vile monster, Vivek Ramaswamy, who may have run the worst campaign in many, many years and keeps doubling down. I am also watching Roger Marshall in Kansas. If you saw his last ad, it was a fascinating story. His team told him he could not do this, and he went ahead and did it anyway. He lied about whether he had sent authorities to arrest his patients as an OBGYN, including pregnant women and women who had just given birth and owed $50 or $100, handcuffed in front of their kids. He denied it all, which just raised the issue again right at the end.

So I am watching those races. If Sherrod falls behind Amy Acton by a few points but wins by four, five, or six, then I think we really are in a very good place. If Annie Andrews comes really close in South Carolina, we are looking at a bigger landslide. Kentucky closes very early, at 6:30, and there is a House seat there that Andy Barr is vacating, a seat that has been very, very strongly Republican. If that race turns out to be a Democratic victory, then we are really looking at 40 seats.

Dean Obedallah: There are two races I am keeping an eye on because, to me, they represent MAGA. Amy Acton in Ohio represents cruelty, and the ad they ran is about cruelty. Abdul El-Sayed represents bigotry. Those are the two prongs, and that is the foundation of MAGA. So I am watching them, because if Amy wins and Abdul wins, it is a big victory, not just electorally, but in the fight against cruelty and bigotry being effective weapons in American politics going forward.

Danielle Moodie: Abdul El-Sayed and Angie Nixon are the races I have been most interested in and most excited by, frankly. I think Abdul El-Sayed would make an extraordinary senator. I think he would bring new energy and fresh attention to actual marginalized people and progressive issues in a way we have not seen in a very long time. He has Obama senatorial energy. And Angie Nixon, if she is able to win in Florida, has absolutely changed the game, going from having no backing and no support to being able to run a ground game in one of the most hostile states in the country.

Waj Ali: I have seen the Islamophobia unleashed against Mamdani and Abdul El-Sayed, and I have known Abdul for a while. He is a good candidate, and I support him not because he is Muslim, but because he is a good candidate. He is a proud Michigander with no scandals, he is married to his college sweetheart, he is a Rhodes Scholar and an MD, and he was already vetted when he ran unsuccessfully against Whitmer for governor. He has served as public health commissioner and has pushed for Medicare for All. The Muslim in me is coming out, and if Abdul wins, it will be the most karmic rebuke to all the haters across the aisle.

And let’s be honest, Mary, it is not just Republicans. It is also the donors, the establishment, and the media. Beyond my own personal bias, a win would disprove the toxic myth of electability that many in the establishment have bandied about, the idea that a progressive candidate with these policies only wins in the nightmare that is New York, where you live, where you get halal meat and vegan transgender atheists. If a candidate like that, with those types of policies, wins in Michigan, it completely obliterates the myth that progressive policies are not electable. That is the race I am watching.

Mary Trump: There are many, but since I have to limit it to one, I am going to say the Senate race in Michigan, for a couple of reasons. First, I want to see whether Mike Rogers wins, because that will tell us everything we need to know about the Republican electorate. It will show that they are all in on the worst forms of bigotry and that they are complicit in it. If El-Sayed wins, that will tell us that all of the attempts by establishment Democrats to kneecap his campaign and undermine him did not work. Going forward, we need to trust the voters in a particular state to make the best choices for themselves. Again, I am pretty sure El-Sayed is going to win, and I am hoping that is the takeaway.

Your voice is an important part of the conversation, and thanks for joining us.