The Catastrophe Beneath the Surface

A global food crisis is already unfolding and the Trump regime helped create it

Getty Images- Shortages Begin as the War in Iran escalates

This may seem counterintuitive, but the most dangerous consequence of Donald’s illegal and unconstitutional war of choice against Iran is not oil. It is food.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not just disrupting energy markets. It is disrupting fertilizer flows that determine future harvests. That disruption is setting the stage for a delayed but potentially catastrophic global food shortage. The Strait’s closure is now threatening the planting season for farmers across South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North America. Those farmers are going to produce less food as a result, and that food scarcity is going to drive prices up globally. The people who will feel it first and be hit the hardest are the people who are already struggling to survive.

About one third of the global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The Food and Agriculture Organization has warned of a potential global food catastrophe, while the World Bank has warned that food insecurity could rise by 20 percent. The World Food Programme estimates that up to 45 million more people could face acute food insecurity. Global food insecurity already affects about 300 million people. Save the Children has warned that the impact of this crisis may exceed the 2022 Ukraine food crisis.

Seventy percent of U.S. farmers are already reporting that fertilizer costs are unaffordable. Fertilizer shortages do not just affect current supply. They affect planting cycles well into the future.

Jorge Moreira da Silva, the executive director of the United Nations Office for Project Services and head of the U.N. Task Force on the Strait of Hormuz, spoke about the consequences.

Jorge Moreira da Silva: We are mostly concerned about the consequences of the disruption on fertilizers. I know that everyone is talking about energy, oil and gas, but the fact that there is so much dependence from so many countries, particularly in Africa and in Southeast Asia, from fertilizers from the Gulf will very likely trigger a massive food security crisis with devastating consequences on the poor. That is why we cannot delay. We must find a solution.

Yes, we must find a solution.

Donald and his depraved, fascist party that supports anything he chooses to do created this problem. But it is up to all of us to solve it because it will affect all of us. Collective problems require collective solutions, and humanity must start to recognize itself as a collective instead of a group of competing interests fighting for advantage at everyone else’s expense.

Currently, we are at a complete standstill. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. In retaliation, the Trump regime enacted a naval blockade so that no vessels could get through, including Iranian vessels already under sanction. The regime is now refusing to lift the blockade without immediate nuclear concessions from Iran. Iran, for its part, is refusing to reopen the Strait unless the blockade is lifted first.

What we have is a deadlock.

It is a debacle. It is a catastrophe. There is no immediate solution. There is no agreed framework. There is no clear timeline for resolution. And Donald does not appear to be in any rush.

Shipping through the Strait remains severely restricted, and global markets are under increasing pressure. Instead of moving toward a resolution, both sides are hardening their positions. The world’s most important energy corridor is effectively closed, and negotiations to reopen it are not progressing.

Here is where things stand. Iran has proposed reopening the Strait in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade. That proposal includes deferring negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, which, contrary to repeated claims from Donald and Pete Hegseth, has not been eliminated. Analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations have described this proposal as a potential strategic advantage for Iran, and Iranian officials have made it clear they will not relinquish control over the Strait.

Another example of Donald weakening the United States while strengthening Iran.

Last week, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth appeared before the House Armed Services Committee alongside General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Pentagon comptroller Jules Hurst III. Protesters in the room chanted , “arrest Hegseth” and “war criminal “ as the hearing began.

Hegseth attempted to defend the administration’s position. This is what he said:

Member of Congress: So they have not broken yet. We have not gotten there yet

Pete Hegseth: Well their nuclear facilities have been obliterated. Underground they are buried and we are watching them twenty four seven

Member of Congress: Operation Midnight Hammer accomplished nothing of substance. It left us at exactly the same place we were before

The exchange speaks for itself.

Donald saw Iran at what he believed was its weakest point and chose to act. What he has done instead is strengthen Iran.

Iran’s leadership structure remains intact despite targeted strikes. The 86 year old Ayatollah has been replaced by his younger and more hardline son. Iran retains approximately 40 percent of its drone capacity and 60 percent of its missile launchers.

And despite repeated claims, you cannot obliterate ambitions.

The impact of this war is spreading. The United Arab Emirates has exited OPEC. The European Central Bank has delayed rate cuts due to inflation concerns. South Korea is facing shortages of medical supplies. The Philippines has declared an energy emergency.

After all of this, the International Atomic Energy Agency estimates that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium stands at approximately 440.9 kilograms enriched to 60 percent U-235 as of early 2026.

To be clear, uranium must be enriched to roughly 90 percent to be considered weapons grade. But 60 percent is far beyond what is required for civilian nuclear energy, which typically ranges between 3 and 5 percent, and even above research-level enrichment at around 20 percent.

In other words, Iran’s nuclear material has not been destroyed. Its capabilities have not been eliminated. And its ambitions certainly have not been erased.

So this is where we are.

A war that was supposed to neutralize a threat has strengthened that threat. A strategy that was supposed to demonstrate power has exposed weakness. A policy that was supposed to secure the future has destabilized it.

And now, a potential resolution would leave Iran stronger, in control of the Strait of Hormuz, with increased financial leverage, and with a nuclear framework that is likely to be weaker than the agreement Donald abandoned.

All of this comes at the cost of human suffering, destroyed infrastructure, global economic instability, weakened alliances, and diminished American credibility.

None of this needed to happen. None of it would have happened if Donald had not been in charge, or if the complicit Republican Party had done anything to stop him.

The Good in Us by Mary L. Trump is a reader- supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.