The Tides, Sometimes They Turn

Part II

And the fog lifts...

669/02

I confess I’ve been obsessed with the spectacle (the debacle, the slow-rolling horror) that is the vote for Speaker of the House. And I find the second anniversary of the January 6th insurrection quite depressing because so many of those responsible for the horrors of that day are in the thick of the deeply troubling display of dysfunction on the floor of the House. I’m waiting for the conclusion of the proceedings before I weigh in but I want to say how grateful I am that the Democratic House caucus had the decency to join on the steps of the Capitol to observe a moment of silence to honor the occasion and those who fought to protect them and our democracy on January 6, 2021 (an event attended by only one Republican, Rep. Brian. House Republicans, led by would-be Speaker Kevin McCarthy did nothing to mark the occasion.) And to President Biden for acknowledging the bravery, decency, and patriotism of those who in various ways made sure our government was not overthrown by the malign forces put in motion by Donald Trump and his allies and enablers.

Tonight, I want to continue my assessment of 2022 as a way of looking ahead to this year. The truth of the matter is that more bad than good happened in 2022. What I realized though, especially after the mid-terms were in the books and had not resulted in a red tsunami, a red wave or even a red puddle, was that the good did happen represented significant turning points that may well have implications going into the 2024 presidential election.

All of the following come with caveats—for example, the January 6th Select Committee did not go far enough in some areas and left key figures in the perpetuation of the Big Lie and organization of the insurrection unscathed or unmentioned (e.g.--Ginni Thomas, Republican Senators, and Republicans House members). I’ll get to those short-comings in another post because these too will reverberate. Right now, however, I want not only to celebrate the wins but to put in perspective the potentially massive impact the following turning points may have on the future of American democracy.

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THE JANUARY 6TH SELECT COMMITTEE HEARINGS

While Nancy Pelosi played chess Kevin McCarthy played checkers. She got a serious bipartisan committee to investigate the January 6th insurrection, its antecedents, and aftermath. If McCarthy had any self-awareness, the self-own would continue to haunt him but he is selling off the last remnants of his soul (as well as the security of the country) to get a Speakership he can’t handle and still may not achieve.

Chairman Benny Thompson led the Committee with a steady hand and deep commitment to the mission, ably seconded by Rep. Liz Cheney, (I withhold criticism of her for the sake of this particular discussion) who effectively ended her political career by choosing to draw the line of things she was willing to accept from her party and its leader at insurrection against the United States.

The hearings themselves were a masterful combination of substance, high production values, and drama. There is no doubt that they had an impact on voters going into the mid-terms and even there is even less doubt that the Committee’s fact-finding will lead to significant consequences for at least some of the planners, instigators, and participants in the insurrection.

THE JUDICIARY

We saw during her confirmation hearing, in which Republican members behaved with unconscionable rudeness and obscene accusations that Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was a force to be reckoned with. Since taking her seat on the Supreme Court she has exceeded expectation.

This brilliant woman’s opinions will, tragically, have little impact on the rulings of a court held hostage by a radical super-majority but she is, on the one hand, writing for posterity and, on the other, making the case that when order is restored, SCOTUS is properly reformed, and liberal justices are once again in the majority, she should one day be its Chief Justice.

Jackson is among the most qualified of any justice ever confirmed, a stark contrast to Kavanaugh and Barrett, and she has more experience than four of her SCOTUS colleagues combined. She is also the only justice ever to have experience as a public defender.

One of my favorite things about her tenure thus far has been her willingness to jump immediately into the fray, pulling no punches while calling out the hypocrisy of her colleagues on the right who claim to care about voting rights while demonstrating that they’re actually bent on destroying the Voting Rights Act.

What will have more of an impact in the short and medium term is the success Biden has had in confirming judges who are women (77%) and people of color (68%).  This may be the most direct way to shape the future of the country especially if Biden and the Democrats can’t figure out a way to reform the Supreme Court. The consolidation of the Democratic majority in the Senate ensures high-quality and diverse judges will continue to be nominated and confirmed.

THE SPECIAL COUNSEL

I was really pissed off when I found out that Merrick Garland had appointed a Special Counsel. I worried that it would slow down—or make unlikely—the process of accountability. When people who know better than I explained that, although it would do nothing to thwart the calls of bias and witch-hunts, it would not slow the investigation down. When I learned more about who Jack Smith is---and who he has added to his team—I now think that Merrick made the right decision. If nothing else, having the investigations into Donald’s role in the January 6th insurrection and his stealing of top secret and highly sensitive documents can only be a good thing as otherwise Garland has done nothing to inspire confidence in his willingness to make hard decisions or do the right thing.

THE F-WORD

Republicans have always excelled at using language to persuade, terrify, cajole, and manipulate their voters. The Democrats have always found it difficult to come up with simple messages that resonate. The media often refuse to use concise, accurate language for fear of being accused of liberal bias by the right. It took the mainstream media three years into the Trump administration to call Donald’s lies, lies and even longer for them to call his racism, racism. When President Biden referred to trends on the right as “semi-fascism” in a speech in the run-up to the mid-terms he was only half right and, of course, he was careful to restrict his criticism to the so-called MAGA wing of the party. I believe the Republican party is of a piece (which is to say equally extreme, anti-democratic, and pro-autocracy) but it still felt like a watershed moment.

THE BRIDGE TOO FAR

In 2022, in the wake of the Supreme Court’s egregious Dobbs decision there were six ballot measures addressing abortion — the most on record.

Voters in Kansas led the way, overwhelmingly rejecting a measure stating that Kansas constitution does not establish a constitutional right to abortion. In November, Kentucky rejected a similar amendment. And so on.

We learned that a fair number of Republican voters don’t like being told what they can do with their bodies by the government.

The cruelty of the Republicans desperate to curtail the rights of women and pregnant people added to the backlash. It didn’t play well when the executive director of a Texas pregnancy crisis center said that "a lot of 13-year-olds do phenomenal" as mothers.

And West Virginia Senator Robert Karnes belief that child rape victims “romanticize” relationships with their rapists…the dynamic of these relationships is that the child has a very romanticized view of what’s happening. They think that this is their boyfriend,” as if that justifies anything, were also met with horror.

Such statements exposed the misogyny, total lack of concern for children, and, in some cases, insanity of those dedicated to destroying the lives of young girls, women, and pregnant people.

THE 2022 MID-TERMS

There were two major concerns going into the mid-terms. One, that the Red Wave the media had been anticipating (and ostensibly rooting for) would come to pass with Democrats losing both the House and the Senate; and, two, that Republican proponents of the Big Lie who ran for office and lost would fail to concede potentially stoking political violence.

If anything, the mid-terms were a Blue tsunami. We added a crucial seat in the Senate and the Republicans won the House by dozens of seats fewer than anticipated. As evidenced by their inability to elect a Speaker, the narrow margin they managed will 1) make it almost impossible for them to govern without significant compromise with Democrats and 2) further expose their extremism and contempt for the democratic process.

As we look ahead to the 2024 presidential elections, this is what we need to keep in mind: Imagine what the 2022 mid-terms would have looked like for Democrats if:

1.     Biden’s speeches about the threats of fascism to our democracy had been aired on broadcast television instead of sit-com re-reruns or reality tv.

2.     The media informed people—about the reasons for high gas prices and inflation, for example—instead of focusing on the horse race and polls

3.     The insurrectionists and seditionists still serving in government had been held accountable

4.     If the innumerable and highly consequential accomplishments of the Biden/Harris administration—with the thinnest of razor thin-margins—had been properly covered

5.     Donald Trump was in prison, or at least indicted, instead of being free to fly around the country spreading dangerous disinformation and lies, committing more crimes, and raising hundreds of millions of dollars.

6.     We had solved the problem of gerrymandering and voter suppression and everybody who has the right to vote was able to vote.

7.     Americans had a deeper understanding of what democracy is and the impact living in a fascist autocracy would have on our day-to-day lives

8.     The Democratic party had invested sufficiently in its candidates in Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Kentucky.

I’m not sure how much pressure we can bring to bear on the first four things on this list but we can certainly find ways to influence the last four. That’s one of the reasons I started my PAC The Democracy Defense fund which is dedicated to supporting and empowering pro-democracy candidates in every state at every level of government. (If you’d like to learn more about DDF you can go here.)

There is much to hope for going forward. And these turning points are a very big part of that.