Saying No to the Toddler

Resisting consistently is the key

As you may have heard, despite declaring the war over, Donald has been desperately seeking help from U.S. allies to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. I have bad news for him. His delusions aside, every single country he has asked so far has said no. What we’re now seeing play out on the world stage is something long overdue: a toddler finally being told no.

Our allies’ united refusal is not the only thing rattling Donald right now. I think the latest phase of his unraveling began earlier this year when his corrupt, illegitimate supermajority of the Supreme Court that has bent over backwards to enable him nearly every step of the way, finally drew a line when it declared his tariffs were unconstitutional and must be undone. How did Donald respond?

He attacked the justices who had, up to that point, given him almost everything he could hope for, including near-total presidential immunity. These justices have bent the law and broken the Constitution in ways that continue to protect him while expanding his power. The one time they told him something he did not want to hear, he lashed out; he insulted them; he called them traitors. And then he refused to comply with their decision anyway.

That’s right, instead of following the court’s ruling, he doubled down and imposed another 15% tariff across the board.

After all, who’s going to stop him? Donald continues to do what he’s always done: push the envelope to see what he can get away with. If nobody stops him (which they almost always never do), he pushes further and gets away with more. On those rare occasions when he’s thwarted, he doesn’t course correct like a mature human being; he doesn’t come up with a different strategy. He doubles down.

When the person engaging in this kind of behavior has the power to bring the world to the brink of economic chaos and a war nobody but him wants, we should all be on our guard. But it’s a long-established pattern: Most frequently, the person who stands up to him—after being threatened or blackmailed—eventually backs down. This gives him more room, more power, more oxygen. He becomes emboldened to do worse things, to take bigger risks, to inflict more pain, to acquire more wealth and more power. Rarely has anybody stood up and said no in a way that sticks.

But that may finally be shifting.

Donald has dragged America into a war of his choosing without permission of the U.S. government or the support of the American people. Nobody, with the exception of Donald and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, wanted this. It is a war that nobody, including Donald, can justify. And perhaps most telling of all, it is a war that nobody, including Donald, knows how to end.

For once, our allies are not falling in line behind him. Instead of humoring him, they’re standing up against him. They are finally, at long last, saying that very simple and powerful word: no. They are saying, “We do not want this. We did not ask for this. You did not consult us before starting this, and therefore we owe you nothing.”

And most importantly, they’re saying: “We will not risk our blood and treasure to help you wage an illegal and unconstitutional war that endangers us all.”

They will not participate in Donald’s war crimes; nor will they help him clean up the political disasters he has created for himself, both at home and abroad. Make no mistake, this situation is already costing him politically. His reckless and ill-considered actions have helped drive massive spikes in oil prices, and the kind of economic shock that reverberates quickly across the globe.

Our allies are beginning to understand something that people inside the U.S. government often pretend not to understand: weakening Donald politically is actually good for the United States, and it is good for the rest of the world.

I suspect that many of our allies are quietly relieved to see Donald’s position weakening, because a diminished Trump regime means a more secure international coalition, fewer reckless decisions, fewer unilateral acts of aggression, and fewer moments during which the entire world has to hold its breath hoping that American leadership doesn’t plunge all of us further into chaos.

In this context, it’s particularly revealing who Donald has not asked for help—that embarrassing gaggle of failing democracies and autocracies that make up his so-called Board of Peace, countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Hungary. Donald created that group as a way to convince people, erroneously, that he has global support when, in reality, he does not. The “Board of Peace” is also a very effective mechanism through which to steal more money from the American people. On February 26, Donald pledged $10 billion American dollars, funds over which he, as permanent chair, has discretion.

Donald, instead, has turned to China to help him out of the geopolitical mess he created. This serves to empower China further (it’s important to keep in mind that this entire fiasco benefits China and Russia—two of our greatest adversaries—at least until Donald got back into the Oval Office in 2025. And it benefits them at the expense of American influence and security. And yet even China said, “No.”

Everyone is saying no to him. These refusals, though, will only matter if it is unwavering.

Over the past few days, we’ve seen signs that Donald is losing control to a degree that we may not have seen before. His behavior toward reporters has become even more volatile and inappropriate. Journalists asking basic, legitimate questions about the war he started, questions any president should be prepared to answer, are being met with insults and temper tantrums.

When a female reporter asked a straightforward question:

Can you explain why are you sending 5,000 additional Marines and sailors?

Donald shushed her and said,

You’re a very obnoxious person.

He then turned to a male reporter who, without missing a beat, asked another question without any concern for how his colleague had been treated (a conversation for another time).

This is how Donald has always operated, but there’s an important difference between throwing temper tantrums during business negotiations, when you have all of the power and leverage, and doing it while managing multiple international crises, most of your own making.

Donald likes to claim that he is a master dealmaker—he is not now, nor has he ever been—not even if we entertain that myth for a moment, the reality is that as a businessman, he always negotiated from a position of overwhelming advantage.

When he was at the Trump Organization, thanks to my grandfather, Donald had more money, more lawyers, more resources, and more leverage than the people he was dealing with. Every negotiation was structured in his favor from the very beginning, and by the time a deal was ready to be finalized, all Donald had to do to make sure he got his way was show up at the last minute and, if the other party did not give him everything he wanted, he’d throw a tantrum, and, if necessary, threaten to bury them in lawsuits if they didn’t comply with his wishes.

That’s not how negotiations work. That is how weak people without any moral compass behave when they are handed enormous, unfair advantages.

What we are witnessing now is something Donald has almost certainly never experienced in his life: he is negotiating from a position of increasing weakness, and he has absolutely no idea how to handle it.

For most of his life, Donald has been protected by wealth, by privilege, and by individuals and institutions that were reluctant to hold him accountable. Even when he failed, the consequences were mitigated by those who realized he was still of use to them. Even when he crossed lines, someone eventually stepped in to smooth things over for him.

But we are living in a very different moment, because this is not just about him and his business interests anymore, and we’re not just talking about the Republican Party anymore. We’re talking about the fact that, through his reckless and dangerous actions, Donald has put the entire world at risk without having secured the support of the American people, of Congress, or other world leaders.

In response, our allies are showing us something that has been missing for far too long: resolve.

To our allies around the world, if you care about the future of NATO and Western liberal democracy, if you care about America and the survival of our democracy, which you should, keep doing exactly what you are doing.

Keep saying no.